The Three Scenarios That Determine The Significance of Georgia’s Senate Runoff
Update: As of 11:29 am, Nov. 9, Wisconsin’s race has been officially projected for incumbent Republican Ron Johnson. Johnson’s victory was already assumed inevitable in this article.
It’s 10:30 am on November 9th, 2022, the morning after election day. While Democrats appear to have staved off the shellacking that Republicans were hoping to give them, control of the Senate remains a tight battle.
A number of important races were called overnight, with Pennsylvania being the most critical. Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has defeated celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz, flipping the seat currently held by Republican Pat Toomey. Fetterman’s flip is an immense win for Dems in a competitive state for a midterm election that was widely expected to be a red wave.
So far, however, Pennsylvania is the only flip of these Senate elections so far. Long-shot attempts by Democrats in North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida fell short as Republicans held on by comfortable margins. While the Wisconsin race remains uncalled by most major news outlets, incumbent senator Republican Ron Johnson holds a steady 1-point lead over challenger Mandela Barnes in a race that seems almost certain to remain in the GOP’s column. Democrats have also held on to a bevy of Senate seats that Republican challengers hoped to make competitive. Democratic incumbents in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington were all reelected in commanding fashion, each winning their race by over 10-point margins, dashing Republican hopes of achieving heroic pickups.
Assuming that Alaska’s technically-uncalled seat also remains red (which is likely, whether it’s Kelly Tshibaka or Lisa Murkowski), control of the Senate rests on three undetermined races in Democratic-held seats: Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. While counts in all three states could take days to signal a clear winner, we already know the likely next step in Georgia’s race: a runoff. According to Georgia law, candidates must attain at least 50% of the vote in order to win outright. Due to the close nature of the race and the relative strength of libertarian Chase Oliver (who is currently getting 2% of the vote), both incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker appear unlikely to cross the 50% threshold.
So, how much should you care about the December runoff race in Georgia? Its importance depends entirely on the results of the two other uncalled senate races: Nevada and Arizona.
Scenario #1: Senate Control hinges on the Georgia runoffs
A.K.A the déjà vu scenario. Keen readers may think back to 2020 when two concurrent Senate elections in Georgia went to the runoffs, of which the Democrats needed to win both to achieve control of the Senate. For about two months in late 2020, Georgia became the center of the political universe as millions of dollars poured into the state. While the results were overshadowed by the January 6th insurrection, Democrats won both seats (Warnock being one of those two), giving them the Senate majority and congressional trifecta to start Biden’s tenure.
Well, if Dems and Reps each win one of Nevada and Arizona, we could be in for another couple of months of Georgia-runoff-obsession. Since Democrats flipped one seat (Pennsylvania), Republicans would need to flip at least one seat to maintain the 50–50 status quo and flip two in order to gain Senate control. Currently, GOP challenger Adam Laxalt is up almost 3 points on Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez-Masto. While the Cortez-Masto could certainly hold her seat — the vast majority of uncounted votes are from blue areas of the state — Laxalt appears poised to pick up the seat for the GOP. In Arizona, it’s the Democrats who are leading, with incumbent Mark Kelly holding a shrinking but substantial 5-point lead over the Trump-endorsed Blake Masters. While this result is also undetermined as the vast majority of remaining ballots are red, Democrats appear slightly favored to hold on to this seat.
In short, Republicans flipping Nevada would bring them to 50 seats, while Democrats holding Arizona would place them at 49. As a result, Senate control would hinge on the Georgia runoffs, where a Walker victory would give the GOP 51 seats — and the majority — while a Warnock win would bring the Democrats to 50 seats and a razor-thin majority with VP Harris’s tiebreaker vote.
Scenario #2: Georgia runoffs determine the extent of Democratic control
This scenario is the optimistic one that democratic strategists in Washington are praying for. If Mark Kelly can maintain his lead in Arizona and Catherine Cortez-Masto can overcome Laxalt’s advantage, both incumbent Democrats will hold their seats, bringing the blue total to 50 seats. As a result, Democrats will officially win control, regardless of the Georgia runoffs.
In this scenario, Walker prevailing in the runoffs would essentially make the entire 2022 Senate elections a wash, with this GOP pickup in Georgia offsetting the Dems’ flip in Pennsylvania and ensuring two more years of our 50–50 Dem majority Senate. If Warnock can maintain his seat, however, it would spell a net gain for Democrats in the Senate — a remarkable feat in a year politically stacked against them. While a 51-seat majority would still be slim, Biden would no longer have the count on perfect partisanship from his party, as he could afford to lose the support of one pesky moderate like Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, and still be able to pass agendas.
It’s unclear how much attention would fall on Georgia in this scenario, but probably not much. Most Americans do not care whether the Democratic majority is 50 or 51, meaning that national fundraising and Georgia turnout will likely be low for the Georgia runoffs if Democrats can hold on to Nevada and Arizona.
Scenario #3: Georgia runoffs determine the extent of Republican control
While the GOP certainly didn’t have the election night it was expecting, they will continue to hold out hope for this scenario, in which Republican control will be affirmed even before the Georgia runoffs. This scenario would require Adam Laxalt to hold his lead in Nevada (quite likely) and Blake Masters to overcome a 5-point deficit in Arizona (less likely, but still possible). If this scenario occurs, Republicans will flip two Democratic-held seats in Arizona and Nevada, offsetting and reversing the Democratic gain in Pennsylvania while ensuring a minimum one-seat net gain for the GOP. As a result, the Georgia runoffs would take place in an environment where the GOP holds 51 seats and the Democrats 48. In this scenario, a Walker victory would give the Republicans 52 seats. Again, it’s a slim majority, but it would allow McConnell to pursue an agenda where he might lose the support of one of his Senators, probably Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, or Mitt Romney, and still have a majority. And if Warnock holds on to this seat in the runoff? Well, it won’t change too much. Republicans will have that slim 51-seat majority, which is still probably enough considering how lock-step the Republicans typically move.
So, Georgians, keep your eye on the Nevada and Arizona Senate races. It’s going to determine how much your runoff vote matters for America’s future.
